A new month, a new set of possibilities. What a fine time for making predictions about the future!
Sometimes (although not always), analogies with past technological advancements can give some insight into future ones.
Take, for example, the Apple iPod. Introduced in October 2001, the iPod was not completely revolutionary. The first digital music player to hit the market was Elger Labs MPMAN F10 in 1998, followed by a succession of rivals.
But 1998 was too early. Digital storage was still too expensive back then, so you couldn’t fit much music on those early devices. But three more years of Moore’s Law made a world of difference.
As usual, Apple jumped in at the right moment, and did it well. The iPod was far more user friendly (and better marketed) than its competitors, and it managed to capture the public’s imagination.
The iPod continued to evolve until 2007, when Apple jumped again, this time to the iPhone (with the iPod Touch serving to help ease the cultural transition). Now, rather than a mere media consumption device in your pocket, you had a general communication device. Where the iPod had been about tuning out, the iPhone was about tuning in.
Now, about fifteen years later, we are starting to see a similar progression with wearables. Perhaps we can use the transition from iPod to iPhone as an analogy.
More on this tomorrow.