I had a dinner conversation this evening with someone who is completely convinced that ChatGPT is going to become a fully intelligent entity sometime in the next 6 years.
Given that I know that the current path to machine learning cannot, intrinsically by its nature, lead to general intelligence, you can imagine that it was an awkward conversation.
I feel as though we are in a situation somewhat akin to the time way back when, at the dawn of the invention of photography, when people became convinced that artists would be put out of business by photographs.
I wonder how soon we will get out of this intermediate space, where people apply magical thinking to the wonderful, yet limited, capabilities of modern machine learning techniques.
At some point, these techniques will be just another tool that we will use in our everyday lives. But as long as people continue to believe that such things bring us into a world of Harry Potter or C-3PO, we still have some conversations to work through.