F is for Future

Future technologies are sometimes easier to focus on than existing ones. For example, over dinner this evening a friend was telling me about a colleague who had done early work on user interfaces that incorporate portable videorecorders. The problem was, the colleague had pursued this research so long ago that there were no portable videorecorders – the technology itself was off still some years in the future. In a situation like that, what’s a scientist to do?

The solution was to design studies in which participants wore a big backpack. All of the stuff it took to emulate a portable video recorder was in that backpack. It was just like the real thing, if you ignored the fact that you were carrying a large backpack on your back.

While my friend was talking, I began to see that not having a real portable videorecorder had helped those scientists gain insights into the technology they were researching. By needing to emulate the device, they were able to keep the device itself in focus. They were forced to think about its properties, rather than merely take those properties for granted.

After all, people are all too good at taking technologies for granted. Air conditioners, washing machines, clocks, pen and paper, these are just a few of many technologies that have completely altered our lives, but that we never think about. In a way, you can say that a technology has become completely successful precisely at the point when we no longer think about it. The flying car may be the subject of hundreds of speculative articles, but the washing machine has transformed countless millions of lives.

And so perhaps we need a little jolt, a way of pinching ourselves, so that we can truly see the technologies we use every day, rather than simply taking them for granted. Maybe we need to pretend they don’t exist yet, like that emulated portable videorecorder my friend was talking about.

Imagine experiments with driving that involved a team of researchers pushing a make believe car around here and there, while a driver sat inside the fake automobile, pressing on the gas and the break, and turning a steering wheel. The team would need to observe the driver, looking at how he or she moved the steering wheel, and then figure out whether to turn left or right, when to accelarate and when to stop.

Or how about experiments that emulate email by having researchers physically carry the text message typed by a correspondent from one room across to another room. That text is then read by the other correspondent, and the typed reply is carried back to the first room. The task of emulation becomes progressively more interesting as more correspondents are added to the experiment.

Similarly, we could emulate internet search via a team of researchers and a library. The team members would need to learn to organize themselves, to fan out and efficiently look for answers in complementary places on the library shelves.

And what about text to speech, or speech to text, automatic translation between languages, even the humble thermostat. These are all amenable to this kind of emulative analysis.

I’m not suggesting that we operate this way in our real lives – that would be silly. But rather that we use this kind of technique – deliberately falling back on “Wizard of Oz” methods, a kind of “F is for Fake” approach, as Orson Welles might have said – even when such approaches are not necessary, in order to force ourselves to examine and to revisit the interface itself, to break down and focus on our interactions with our modern technological tools in a way that does not permit us to take them for granted.

Besides, imagine the following scenario: You sit in a high-tech looking platform and operate a plastic joystick while a team of people carries you around the room, swooping, lifting and banking, hovering and gliding. Finally you get to have that flying car. 🙂

5 thoughts on “F is for Future”

  1. Your post reminds me of the time when I was with a group of civil engineers. We worked on regenerative energy. When we did projects , we worked on a scenario where all the energy provided comes from regenerative sources. After we set up this utopistic scenario for an area, we looked at the hard reality and then tried to fill in the middle, trying to reach utopia.

    If you thinking goes in this direction you end up with much more innovative ideas and solutions. If you only look at the reality and then you try to improve it, you only end up with small steps froward.

    Built your model of a flying car, then go back to reality and try to reach your dream as best as you can, you will end up with something great or at least something better than an optimised status quo.

    I use this work-flow wherever I can, built your dream first, than check reality and try to fill in the gap.

  2. Aha, I see my devilish little plan has been uncovered. Yes, I’m looking forward to them too! 😉

  3. OK, this post really struck a nerve for me. You mentioned email simulations. In high school I read a Scientific American book (apparently based on a 1966 theme issue of the magazine, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_MAC) that described the novel concept of email usage at MIT’s Project MAC. I have a memory of sitting at home with my little portable mechanical typewriter making up email conversations with imaginary colleagues. (“A Portrait of the Geek as a Young Man”)

    I’ve heard of user-experience design for web sites and apps made using a “paper prototype” similar to what you describe in this post.

    This also got me thinking of an illustration in my MS thesis. I had found a photo in TV Guide of a bunch of puppeteers, all covered head to toe in Chromakey blue tights, working to control parts of two puppets. I traced the image and included it in my thesis to illustrate the idea of many little parallel programs operating to control computer animation.

    And that reminded me of a 2003 (pre-YouTube) video made famous by Internet distribution from a Japanese TV show, in which a large group of “puppeteers” and two actors “simulated” a ping pong game depicted in the style of The Matrix movies. It not quite Ken’s flying car scenario but its pretty close:

    2003 Matrix ping pong
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dcmDscwEcI
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kasou_Taishou#Matrix_ping_pong
    http://www.famouspictures.org/mag/index.php?title=Matrix_Ping_Pong

    Ken: since I’m now collecting links on this topic, I need a name or pithy phrase for this sort of thing so I can use it to tag the links. Any suggestions? Human-based simulation?

  4. I completely agree. Making something that looks and acts like the thing you’re going for is an enormously important step in actually getting there. Not only do you get a working feel for what you are trying for, but you can also explain it to others much more easily. I learned right at the start of my career that showing something is far more likely to make the real thing happen than mere talk.

    Of course there is a danger in showing things that already seem to work. You know that you’re not showing a working product, but the people you are showing it to might not. One person in an afternoon to make a “working” mock-up of something that might take dozens of people several years to turn into a full-on working product. When that difference is not understood by everyone involved, things can get very weird.

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