Republicans did not win more votes in this election cycle than they did in 2020. But Democrats won many fewer votes than they did last time around. Even so, the popular vote was very close.
The way I see it, this election was largely decided on three issues. Each of these issues alone might not have made the difference, but together they created a perfect storm.
The first was the same thing that has been happening in other countries. Whoever was in charge, in the wake of the Pandemic, had the thankless task of cleaning up the huge economic mess it had made. Most recent incumbent governments around the world have been voted out of office for just this reason alone.
The second was that the midterm elections in the U.S., which tend to draw a smaller number of voters who actually pay attention to policy, had swung so well for the Democrats that President Biden got overconfident, and reneged on his vow to be a one term president. We all saw how that turned out. The loss of public trust after his debate performance tarred everyone in his administration who appeared to have been covering for him, including his vice president.
The third was the war in Gaza. The anger that our support for Israel stirred in many young people — however wrongly informed that anger may have been — hollowed out one of the Democrats’ traditionally largest voter blocs. Many first time voters simply stayed home.
The good news for Democrats is that none of the above is a mandate for th other party, so 2028 is still very much in play.
Also, it is worth pointing out, if the incoming administration tanks the U.S. economy in a headlong rush to hand over more of our nation’s wealth to Elon and his friends, voters will vote them out of office faster than you can say “34 felonies”.